Wake Forest Preview
Wake Forest, like many other ACC teams fielded a weak offensive attack in 2008. They finished 101st in the nation in total yards with just 308 per game.
Despite the presence of steady QB Riley Skinner and the return of 2007 freshman standout RB Josh Adams, the Deacons 2008 offense showed some disturbing negative trends in 2008.
For the fifth consecutive year, the Deacons’ offensive yards per carry decreased (down to 3.1 ypc) while for the 5th year in the last 6, their rushing yards per game decreased (down to 121 per game). For the third straight year, Wake Forest gave up more sacks than the year before, surrendering 30 in 2008.
Wake Forest wins games by running the ball and winning the turnover battle. When they are unable to do one or both, they struggle big time. In five losses last season (to Navy, Maryland, Miami, NCSU, and BC), the Deacs averaged just 94 yards per game on the ground (2.68 yards per carry) and had a -2 turnover margin. In their 8 wins, the Deacs averaged 138 per game on the ground (3.24 ypc) and had an impressive +19 turnover margin.
So will Wake Forest be able to run the ball—and protect the ball—to produce a solid offensive season in 2009?
Although they lost leading receiver DJ Boldin, it looks like the 2009 offense should wake up some sleeping Deacons in the black and gold pews of BB & T Field. Wake Forest returns an All-ACC game manager at QB in Riley Skinner, three capable ACC running backs in Josh Adams, Brandon Pendergrass, and Kevin Harris, and some talent at wide receiver.
Most importantly though, they return tons of experience on the offensive line. 4 of 5 starters return, and 9 of 10 players from last year’s two deep are back. Additionally, 2006 and 2007 full-time starter Chris DeGeare returns after missing last fall for academic reasons. All in all, the 2009 Wake offensive front has 119 returning starts, good for 2nd in the nation.
After some hard times out of the shotgun last fall, it appears the Deacs will feature a lot more I-formation and pro sets this year. If Skinner stays healthy and the running game can improve, this offense will improve by 25 to 30 yards per game in 2009, finishing somewhere around 80th in the nation in total yards.
QB- Riley Skinner (2347 yards passing, 13 TD 7 INT, 63.9% completion; 126.2 rating)
If you listen to football commentators do a Wake game, you might think that Riley Skinner is the 2nd coming of Joe Montana. In reality, he’s more like the second coming of unspectacular, former Baltimore Ravens’ QB Trent Dilfer. He won’t blow you away with his arm, and he won’t torch you for 300 yards (ever…in 3 years and 37 starts), but he’ll complete passes, protect the ball, and win games. In 2008, Skinner had his lowest career pass efficiency rating (126.19), his lowest yards per attempt (6.47), and his lowest completion percentage (63.9%). In Wake Forest losses, he had just 3 TD and 7 INT, good for a 91.65 rating. What does that tell us? When Wake cannot run the ball and defenses can cram the line of scrimmage, Skinner struggles with the dinks and dumps of the offense. If the offensive line improves markedly, Skinner will have a solid senior season to remember. If not, he will have another mediocre season like he had in 2008.
RB- Josh Adams (392 rush yards, 3.3 ypc, 4 TD; 86 receiving yards)
Adams had a spectacular freshman campaign that included an unbelievable 140 yard effort at Florida State and an ACC-freshman of the year award. Unfortunately, he was entirely unable to build on that stupendous start last fall. In 2008, Josh Adams had one of the bigger sophomore slumps in recent ACC memory, finishing with 600 less rushing yards than he did as a freshman. Other than a 111 yard effort against Miami, he struggled to produce much of anything on the ground. In the last six games, he sat out two with injuries and in the other four, rushed for a total of 35 yards on 19 carries. (Stick a football in 2nd US President John Adams hands, and he would have rushed for 35 yards just walking to the podium of the Constitutional Convention to give a speech.) This fall, the 180 lb Adams will have to contend with Kevin Harris and Brandon Pendergrass for carries, so it’s unlikely he’ll even approach the 1,000 yard mark.
RB- Brandon Pendergrass (528 yards, 3.5 ypc, 5 TD; 125 yards receiving)
Pendergrass is not the type of back who’s going to run you over in between the tackles. He was terrible at the beginning of 2008, but he finished the season as the Deacons best runner and pass-catcher out of the backfield. In the final four games of the regular season, he averaged 73 yards per game and 4.5 yards per carry. After that performance, it seems he’d be the leading candidate to start in 2009, but he missed the Eaglebank Bowl with injury, and in the Eaglebank Bowl…
RB- Kevin Harris (176 yards, 5.3 ypc, TD)
230 lb dump truck tailback Kevin Harris overwhelmed the Navy Midshipmen for 136 yards on 24 carries. He showed power in the hole, and speed enough to break some big plays. Coming into the game, he had just 9 carries on the season. Now it’s safe to say that Harris will be one of three Deacon backs to share the load in 2009.
WR- Marshall Williams (390 yards, 15.0 ypc, 2 TD)
Marshall, Marshall, Marshall! Williams is a speedy wideout who made some enormous plays for Wake in 2008, including a 64 yard-flea-flicker TD from DJ Boldin and a TD to give Wake a 20-14 lead over Ole Miss.
WR- Jordan Williams (9 catches 141 yards in 2007)
Williams is another fast wideout who missed 2008 due to injuries. His final two catches of 2007 went for 43 and 62 yards, respectively, so you know he can punish you with the big play.
WR- Devon Brown (134 yards, TD)
Unlike the Williams boys, Brown is small at 5’9 and quicker. He was first team all-State as a senior in high school after piling up 29 touchdowns that year. Look for him to make an impact on wide receiver screens and in the short passing game.
Also look out for:
WR- Terrance Davis (redshirt freshman; 2 star recruit in class of 2008)
WR- Chris Givens (redshirt freshman)
TE- Ben Wooster (211 yards, 3 TD)
Wooster can punish defenses (6 catches 90 yards vs. Baylor) in the passing game as a possession receiver, but mostly he helps to pave the way for the ground attack.
Offensive Line
Chris DeGeare (T), Joe Birdsong (T), Barrett McMillin (G), Jeff Griffin (G), Russell Nenon (C )
All five starters are upperclassmen with size and experience, so it would be a major disappointment if this offensive line struggles as much as last year’s.
Defense
The Deacs had an excellent defense in 2008, finishing 16th in the nation in total yardage allowed (296 per game). They led the nation in turnovers forced with a whopping 37.
However, Wake Forest loses more talent from the 2008 starting lineup that almost any team in the ACC. At linebacker, they lose top 5 pick Aaron Curry who racked up 105 tackles and 16 TFL last fall, as well as Stanley Arnoux (89 tackles, 5.5 TFL, 1.5 sacks, INT) and Chantz McClinic (51 tackles, 3.5 TFL, 2 sacks).
In the secondary, they lose all-time ACC interceptions leader Alphonso Smith and steady seniors Chip Vaughn (87 tackles, 2.5 TFL, 2 INT) and Kevin Patterson (54 tackles, TFL, 4 INT).
Nonetheless, they return a lot of talent and experience on the defensive line. Boo Williams and John Russell will make it hard for opponents to run the football, while Brandon Ghee could develop into a shut down corner in the secondary.
I think this Wake Forest defense will drop off significantly from 2008, especially in pass defense—and they will be ranked around 50th in the nation in total defense this fall.
DE- Kyle Wilber (42 tackles, 6.5 TFL, 3 sacks)
Wilber is small at just 230 lb, but that didn’t keep him from crashing into ACC backfields all season in 2008. Look for Wilber to become one of the best young defensive linemen in the ACC this year.
DE- Tristan Dorty (5 tackles, TFL)
Dorty is also relatively small at just 250 lb. He didn’t see a lot of time in 2008.
DT- John Russell (38 tackles, 7 TFL, 4 sacks)
Russell, who was a teammate of Riley Skinner’s in high school, had an excellent season in 2008. He’s big (6’4 280 lb) enough to hold up against the run, but his pass rushing skills are also solid.
DT- Boo Robinson (46 tackles, 5.5 TFL, 4.5 sacks, INT)
Boo Robinson has been scaring offensive linemen for three years now with his power and strength. He has 11.5 career sacks in 3 seasons, an extremely impressive number for a defensive tackle. He sat out the spring with back problems, but he should make a run at All-ACC 2nd team this fall.
LB- Hunter Haynes (24 tackles, .5 TFL, .5 sacks)
Haynes didn’t see a lot of time in 2008, since he was playing behind some fellow named Aaron Curry, but when he did, he played well. He finished with 4 tackles against SEC powerhouse Ole Miss in Wake’s 2nd game last fall.
LB- Matt Woodlief (22 tackles, .5 TFL)
Matt Woodlief is built like a bowling ball. He stands just 5’11 but he weighs more (255 lb) than either of Wake Forest’s starting defensive ends. Woodlief saw some backup time to Arnoux last fall, but I expect him to be a liability in pass coverage this year.
LB- Jonathan Jones (6 tackles, TFL)
Jones didn’t see much time last year except for Special teams. He played well against Maryland, collecting 6 tackles and a TFL in that game.
CB- Brandon Ghee (35 tackles, 3.5 TFL, sack, INT)
Ghee suffered a sprained knee in spring practice, and he absolutely must be healthy in 2009 for the Wake secondary to be effective. Ghee is strong in coverage, but his greatest strength might be forcing fumbles—he finished second in the ACC with 4 of them in 2008.
CB- Josh Bush (17 tackles, TFL)
Bush got a lot of reps in this spring after the injury to Brandon Ghee.
CB- Kenny Okoro
Okoro played really well this spring after the injury to Ghee. He will likely split time at the 2nd corner position with Josh Bush.
S- Cyhl Quarles (5 tackles)
Quarles didn’t see much time in 2008 because he was backing up two of the ACC’s best safeties in Chip Vaughn and Kevin Patterson. Quarles has good size at 6’3 205 lb.
S- Alex Frye (13 tackles, INT)
Alex Frye started the opener in 2008, but didn’t see much time after that.